REPORTS

USDA – India and Brazil Drive Global Sugar Production Higher in 2025/26

Global sugar production in 2025/26 is forecast up 8.3 million tons year over year to 189.3 million with higher production in Brazil and India expected to more than offset lower European Union production. Increased shipments from Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to more than offset reduced exports from the European Union. Ending stocks are forecast to rise due primarily to India and China.

U.S. production is forecast down slightly from last year to 8.5 million tons. Imports are forecast lower based on projected quota programs set at minimum levels consistent with World Trade Organization and free-trade agreement obligations, and on projected imports from Mexico, reexports, and high-tier tariff imports. Consumption is down slightly, and stocks are reduced mostly due to lower imports.

Brazil production is forecast up 700,000 tons from 2024/25 to 44.4 million with expected higher sugar yield due to favorable weather. The sugar/ethanol production mix is expected to favor sugar, with 51 percent for sugar and 49 percent for ethanol. Consumption is stable while exports are up with higher production.

European Union production is forecast to fall 5 percent year over year to 15.5 million tons as sugar beet area is expected to be down 8 percent mainly among top producing member states including France and Germany. Consumption and ending stocks are relatively unchanged from the prior year. Imports are up with lower production while exports are forecast down.

Thailand production is forecast up 2 percent to 10.3 million tons due to increased sugarcane production and cane sugar yield. With consumption expected flat, exports are forecast to continue rebounding to 7.0 million tons, drawing stocks down to 10.0 million.

India production is estimated to jump 26 percent year over year to 35.3 million tons on favorable weather and increased planting area and yield as output rebounds from the harsh conditions caused by El Niño. Consumption is anticipated to rise, driven by food service sector growth, while exports and stocks are both up with the increase in supply.

Australia production is forecast to increase 150,000 tons to 4.0 million on slightly higher yields. Exports are expected to rise on additional output as consumption remains nearly unchanged.

China production is forecast up 340,000 tons to 11.5 million as sugarcane area is expected to rise and sugar beets are expected to benefit from favorable weather. With output rising faster than consumption, stocks are forecast up nearly 50 percent to 2.4 million tons.

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